The Withdrawal of the Russian Federation Troops from the Republic of Moldova
An approach from the perspective of the National Defense System.
The President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, called for the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of the Republic of Moldova in her speech at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly during its 77th session. Next, we present an opinion and an approach from the perspective of the National Defense System and military security of the Republic of Moldova on this subject.
To begin with, it is worth mentioning that on June 22, 2018, the UN General Assembly voted on a resolution regarding the complete and unconditional withdrawal of foreign military forces from the territory of the Republic of Moldova. The draft resolution was presented to the UN by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Moldova, Tudor Ulianovschi, who in his speech stated that the resolution pertains to the Operational Group of Russian Troops (OGRT), which continues to be illegally stationed on the territory of the Republic of Moldova.
Officially GOTR was established in 1995 by order of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia. According to open sources, GOTR consists of 1,500 to 2,500 military personnel and is composed of two infantry battalions, a support battalion, and the contingent command. The government in Chișinău has not allowed the rotation of the contingent’s troops since the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014, and since then, Russian troops have been recruiting residents of the eastern regions of the Republic of Moldova who hold Russian citizenship. The Russian Federation justifies the presence of its contingent on the territory of the Republic of Moldova by stating that it ensures the security of the ammunition depots in Cobasna and the maintenance of Russian peacekeeping forces.
From the perspective of the National Defense System, the Russian troops stationed without the consent of the Republic of Moldova in Transnistria must be withdrawn, as they, together with the Transnistrian militarized structures, constitute the greatest threat to the independence and sovereignty of the Republic of Moldova. This is explicitly stated in the National Defense Strategy of the Republic of Moldova, approved by Parliament Decision no. 134 on 19.07.2018.
The Military Strategy of the Republic of Moldova, approved by Government Decision no. 961 of 03.10.2018, differentiates the Russian Troops in the Republic of Moldova into two categories:
The Operational Group of Russian Troops (OGRT), which according to the Strategy represents a grouping of military forces at the operational-tactical level, illegally deployed on the territory of the Republic of Moldova, thus violating the country’s neutral status;
The Russian contingent within the Joint Peacekeeping Forces, which is located on the left bank of the Dniester based on the Moldovan-Russian agreement of July 21, 1992.
The Military Strategy broadly describes how the GOTR troops constitute a military threat. Specifically, the text of the strategy states that Russian troops represent a harmful factor of regional destabilization given the context of the tense relations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The strategy also mentions that under the management of the Russian Operational Group of Forces (GOTR) on the territory of the Republic of Moldova, there are a series of military infrastructure facilities that amplify the risks to military and ecological security, referring to the Cobasna weapon depots. Additionally, it specifies that the depots store, under unknown conditions and in unknown quantities, unaccounted military arsenal, which cannot be controlled or verified by the authorities of the Republic of Moldova or the international community. At the same time, GOTR possesses potential that can endanger electronic communications and the security of the country’s informational infrastructure.
Military analysts claim that, in the event of military actions being initiated, the Transnistrian militarized formations will come under the direct command of the GOTR. And this demonstrates that the Russian forces on the territory of the Republic of Moldova can ensure the command and control architecture for the unified leadership of the troops in order to conduct combat operations. At the same time, a multitude of joint military exercises between the GOTR and the Transnistrian militarized structures are conducted annually at the training grounds in Transnistria.
Thus, with the beginning of the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine in February of this year, the contingent of Russian troops in the Republic of Moldova was immediately activated and put on alert. And during the Russian offensive in southern Ukraine, all scenarios developed by military analysts concluded that there would be a junction of the GOTR with Russian military forces in the Odessa region or at the state border of the Republic of Moldova. For this reason, the Ukrainian Forces have been forced to allocate the necessary military resources from the very beginning of the war to deter and counter any military action coming from the Transnistrian territory. As a result, these resources cannot be used in other sectors. And to keep them away from the front in the South or East of Ukraine, several provocations have been organized in the Transnistrian Region since the beginning of the conflict. One of them being the staging of the attack on the MGB headquarters in Tiraspol in April of this year.
In the Republic of Moldova, the capabilities possessed by GOTR are sufficient to constitute a significant bridgehead for the Russian army in the event of the war in Ukraine expanding. Additionally, GOTR has the necessary capabilities to carry out provocations in an attempt to draw Chișinău into the armed conflict in the region. At the same time, the Russian contingent has the capacity to amplify the generation of additional forces for the Russian army by deploying the mobilization of citizens from the left bank of the Dniester River who hold passports of the Russian Federation. Additionally, if necessary, the GOTR can act as a deterrent to the intensification of military cooperation between the Republic of Moldova and its development partners. And of course, to act as a tool of political pressure on the decisions of the authorities in Chișinău.
It should be mentioned that, even though the National Defense Strategy and the Military Strategy of the Republic of Moldova were developed at the end of the last decade, the threats to the military security of the Republic of Moldova were correctly identified, and the war in Ukraine has fully demonstrated this. Therefore, from a military standpoint, the request to withdraw Russian troops from the territory of the Republic of Moldova is justified and absolutely necessary. And the political forces in the Republic of Moldova must demand this from any available national and international platform.